ELECTION DAY: State of the Vote

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This week, Kiel Williams from Decision Desk HQ joins host Ron Steslow to set the table for what to expect in the midterm elections.

Decision Desk HQ are among the most trusted experts in measuring and modeling public opinion and election outcomes. They’re the mathletes behind major outlets like The Economist, Buzzfeed News, VOX Media, Insider, and The New York Times, for election night results and final calls on races.

(01:38) How the generic ballot looks

(02:50) Movement in Senate forecasting

(03:40) The claim that Republicans are gaming polling averages

(07:40) The challenge of polling response bias

(09:30) Races that could indicate a good or bad night for Democrats

(15:53) Whether low turnout still favors Republicans

(22:14) A race that could indicate whether the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade increased turnout